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Posted

Let me preface this by saying "I'M A LEAFS FAN. ALWAYS HAVE BEEN, ALWAYS WILL BE". Ok, now that I have that out of the way, I wanted to repost this article I read on the MSN sports page today. Let the debate begin. Is this guy right? Or is he way off base?

 

 

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs won’t be an NHL powerhouse for at least five years

 

Another NHL season, another year without any playoff games for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Despite an infusion of excellent goaltending from rookie James Reimer and a valiant team effort after the all-star break, a miserable first half was just too much for the Leafs to overcome. Their playoff absence now stretches to six seasons and seven years thanks to the lockout. Certainly there have been signs of promise from the team's core youngsters and a few tweaks could easily get them into the dance next year, but their long Stanley Cup drought is still years away from being lifted. The following is what still ails the blue and white and what prevents them from being a perennial powerhouse.

 

Draft Schmaft

It's been proven time and time again that good teams build through the draft. Sure, the New York Islanders' brass will tell you that there are no guarantees, but looking at upper-echelon teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks and Washington Capitals should have been strong enough evidence to entice the Leafs to keep their top draft picks. Even teams like the Philadelphia Flyers and Anaheim Ducks have built the foundations of their organizations through lower first-round selections. Instead, the Leafs have given up picks which have been used to draft the likes of Scott Niedermayer, Roberto Luongo and super-rookie Logan Couture. Not to mention the two first-rounders relinquished for Phil Kessel.

 

Banking on free agency

Because the Leafs have largely been resistant to holding onto high draft picks, the franchise has adopted the mantra, as general manager Brian Burke says, "July 1 will be our draft." Overall, that strategy hasn't worked for teams in the past - see New York Rangers - and because teams tend to lock up their young talent, which they draft, the chances of it working now are slim to nil. Last year the Leafs were only able to nab third-line forward Colby Armstrong in early July, thanks to weak selection of available players. And this year's crop of free agents is arguably weaker. Plus their biggest needs - a centre like Brad Richards and, to a lesser extent, a goalie like Ilya Bryzgalov - are rumoured to be uninterested in coming to Toronto.

 

Cap concerns

Every team has issues with their salary caps, and, quite honestly, when compared to those of the Chicago Blackhawks, Calgary Flames or New York Rangers, the Toronto Maple Leafs' problems look rather minuscule. However, like the Rangers who have former world-class defenceman Wade Redden and his $6.5 million contact buried in the minors, the Leafs have Jeff Finger playing in the AHL. While his salary doesn't go against the cap as a member of the Marlies, Finger's earnings compared to his quality of play in his first NHL season in Toronto meant the Leafs were forced to sign Mike Komisarek. Komisarek has underperformed mightily in his first two seasons with the Leafs and has three more seasons left on his hefty contract. The team will have to decide whether to continue to overpay him on the third pairing or go the Finger route - something general manager Brian Burke has been steadfastly against.

 

Misreading talent

Aside from Jeff Finger and Mike Komisarek, the organization has a long history of either misreading talent or having players play their best hockey elsewhere. Just in their recent non-playoff years, the Leafs have undervalued the likes of Alex Steen and Tuukka Rask and overvalued - just in goal alone -Andrew Raycroft, Vesa Toskala and Justin Pogge. While Brian Burke is doing a much better job in this regard, namely with Nikolai Kulemin and Clarke MacArthur, there are still some blemishes.

 

Backing the wrong players

On top of the Maple Leafs organization having made some irreversible decisions when it comes to judging talent, their present situation has also set them back. While the team's two core players, captain Dion Phaneuf and scoring winger Phil Kessel, can be considered good or even excellent NHLers, neither has proven to be a frontline player capable of leading a dominant team. Both have shown signs of brilliance this season, but Phaneuf still has defensive lapses and Kessel still generally avoids the tough areas on the ice. Considering they're paid to be superstars, that doesn't bode well for future success.

 

Out with the new and in with the old

In the years leading up to the lockout, the Leafs were one of hockey's most consistent teams. From 1999 to 2004, the blue and white made the playoffs every year, reaching the Eastern Conference final twice, while only failing to advance past the first round once. They accomplished this by being one of the league's biggest spending teams and by mortgaging the future in deals for past stars in the twilight of their careers. The trades for Brian Leetch and Owen Nolan - where they gave up top prospect Brad Boyes - highlighted a team philosophy that would continue into the 2005-06 season when they signed Eric Lindros, Jason Allison and Jeff O'Neill. As one of the youngest teams in the NHL, the Leafs have certainly altered their course. But because it's only a recent change, it will take some time for those young players to reach their full potential.

 

Lack of truly elite players

There's Dion Phaneuf and Phil Kessel today. There's Mats Sundin from a couple years ago. Doug Gilmour, Wendel Clark, Darryl Sittler, all of which are special talents to be sure. But there's hardly a Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Sidney Crosby or Alexander Ovechkin in the bunch. No the Leafs have not been known to dress truly elite-calibre players throughout the last half century. Aside from Gilmour, who won the Selke Trophy for his defensive prowess in 1993, no Leaf has won a major award in quite some time. In fact, only two have ever won the Hart Trophy - Babe Pratt (1944) and Ted Kennedy (1955).

 

Talented players playing with lesser-likes

Maybe, just maybe, one of the past Maple Leafs' stars could have won a major award winner if he had had more talent to play with. It's a problem that has plagued the team for years. Other than the brief period when Mats Sundin got to line up beside Gary Roberts and Alexander Mogilny, the long-time captain was forced to have average players like Jonas Hoglund on his wing. (Hoglund miraculously managed to net 29 goals in 2000 thanks to Captain Mats). The same issue has hampered Phil Kessel in his early tenure in Toronto as the offensive drop off between Marc Savard, his former centre in Boston, and Tyler Bozak is drastic. With Brad Richards reportedly not interested in becoming a Maple Leaf, the age-old problem will likely continue.

Posted

pretty hard to argue with that! How many years will we see the leafs crap the bed early, play decent hockey when its too late and then miss the playoffs. Seriously, every year when they make this late run there are great hopes for the following year...just to see those hopes down the toilet before October ends!

Posted (edited)

There's a really interesting book out there for sports nuts called scorecasting. The book discusses the hidden influences and biases that exist in sports. Lots of interesting stuff in there.

 

The last chapter describes the futility of the Chicago cubs over the past century. They attribute it largely to a lack of financial incentive to win. Most sports teams see their revenue (in the form of ticket sales, advertising, merchandise sale, etc.) change relative to the performance of the team, which makes a lot of sense. However a few teams have a relatively stable fanbase which seems to defy this. And the cubs have the most stable fanbase in MLB. No matter how well or poor the cubs did the year before, attendance and revenue held constant. So essentially a team in this position does not have the financial incentive to win that most teams do. And so they're quite content to just maintain the status quo. They provide a bunch of interesting stats and discussion that's too much to go into here but I couldn't help think of another team that seems to fit this profile.

Edited by timmeh
Guest ThisPlaceSucks
Posted

it's accurate historically but i think the article under appreciates how strong a game the buds had since the all star break.

Posted

The only thing about that article that I question is the five year timeframe.

 

Leafs have sucked since 1967.

 

What the heck is going to change in five years?

 

 

There were 6 teams in 1967... There have been many Leaf teams since that could've easily beat past Leaf championship teams, especially from the 90s. They had good teams in much of the 90s, they didn't suck like they have the past 5 years.

Posted

Not to mention the team that should have won in '93....

Could have .... should have ..... would have .... every year it's a different excuse.

 

Sorry man, but it's the truth. As long as the club is owned and operated by a bunch of bean counters, nothing's going to change.

 

Golf Leafs, Golf!

Posted

Most of what was said is true and nothing most long time fans didnt already know.

A 1st line center is desperatly needed,we lost far too many face-offs and kessel needs a good play maker.

 

but the article says kessels numbers have dropped off without savard. last time i looked ,kessel has his best point production this year.

on a side note ,another year of ron wilson is gonna suck. i cant stand looking at him. also ive never heard so many commentators and pannelists question a coaches decision(s) then when it comes to wilson. he isnt all the problems,but getting a different coach would be a step in the right direction. now if we can only turf the suits in the lower bowl

Posted

Most of what was said is true and nothing most long time fans didnt already know.

A 1st line center is desperatly needed,we lost far too many face-offs and kessel needs a good play maker.

 

but the article says kessels numbers have dropped off without savard. last time i looked ,kessel has his best point production this year.

on a side note ,another year of ron wilson is gonna suck. i cant stand looking at him. also ive never heard so many commentators and pannelists question a coaches decision(s) then when it comes to wilson. he isnt all the problems,but getting a different coach would be a step in the right direction. now if we can only turf the suits in the lower bowl

Remember though Lunatic, Ron inherited a team that's been torn down and rebuilt. Almost the worst team in the league last year and this year knocking on the door of the playoffs. I think we're going in the right direction and would give him my vote for next year.

Posted

Remember though Lunatic, Ron inherited a team that's been torn down and rebuilt. Almost the worst team in the league last year and this year knocking on the door of the playoffs. I think we're going in the right direction and would give him my vote for next year.

also remember he has had 3 different teams infront of him and has posted 'team worst' in a few categories. i think maurice had a worse team then what ron did. how many times can you watch him take credit away from players? also him being voted on by 300+ players as coach you least would like to play for cant be too good for luring free agents no?

Posted

Hmm, I'm so used to them loosing I now use them for responses to telemarketers:

 

"Hi This is Bell Canada calling, we notice you used to be a subscriber, and we were wondering: what we could offer you to try us again"

"Me: What, did the Leafs win the Cup?"

It would really be a bummer if I had to come up with something that brings such a silense at the other end of the phone.

Posted

Don't blame the teachers union. Blame to die hard sheep who support the team no matter what the result. I'm not saying that a single owner that wanted to win above all would not make a difference, but for 1.3 billion who is going to do that. The facts are that the team makes boat loads of money whether they win or lose. If Leaf fans were more lake Hab fans (who almost boycott the team when they suck) than there would be more incentive to win. Basically all die hard Leaf fans only have themselves to blame for the pathetic results of their team. That is a tough pill to swallow.

Posted

Don't blame the teachers union. Blame to die hard sheep who support the team no matter what the result. I'm not saying that a single owner that wanted to win above all would not make a difference, but for 1.3 billion who is going to do that. The facts are that the team makes boat loads of money whether they win or lose. If Leaf fans were more lake Hab fans (who almost boycott the team when they suck) than there would be more incentive to win. Basically all die hard Leaf fans only have themselves to blame for the pathetic results of their team. That is a tough pill to swallow.

 

 

Speaking of sheep ,how about the people who use the same argument over and over again yet it makes absolutely no sense at all.Soooo the leafs brass do not care about winning just the money?We all know playoff revenue is next to nothing right...well isn't it?

If they DID win the cup can you imagine how that would bring in the money?

If making money was the goal would not a few rounds of playoff hockey be an incentive???

So without support the leafs are going to magically come up with better players??Yes sir boycott the Leafs and Brad Richards will say"hey now theres a place I want to play".You just might have Crosby thinking about asking for a trade.

Posted

Lunatic is right if you listened to Don Cherry tonight. :thumbsup_anim: "Reimer saved Wilson's ass with his play since the all-star break" (Don Cherry). He tore a strip off of Wilson for not abandoning Giguere before Christmas and for not keeping Kadri from the get-go. Kadri outscore all kinds of other outstanding rookies on other teams during the exhibition season, yet Wilson sent him back to the AHL. :wallbash:

 

I agree with Cherry (not usually) when he says the penalty kill unit hasn't been coached and that's why they place 29th in PK each year. It's not a skill like the PP, it's a coached unit. Wilson doesn't know how to coach specialty units. It would help if they had a centre that could win a draw on either specialty team. :rolleyes:

 

Dan O.

Posted

Agreed but it isnt ususally the job of the head coach to work the PP or the PK.That job has always fallen on the shoulders of the assistants.

 

Lunatic is right if you listened to Don Cherry tonight. thumbsup_anim.gif "Reimer saved Wilson's ass with his play since the all-star break" (Don Cherry). He tore a strip off of Wilson for not abandoning Giguere before Christmas and for not keeping Kadri from the get-go. Kadri outscore all kinds of other outstanding rookies on other teams during the exhibition season, yet Wilson sent him back to the AHL. wallbash.gif

 

I agree with Cherry (not usually) when he says the penalty kill unit hasn't been coached and that's why they place 29th in PK each year. It's not a skill like the PP, it's a coached unit. Wilson doesn't know how to coach specialty units. It would help if they had a centre that could win a draw on either specialty team. rolleyes.gif

 

Dan O.

Posted

Agreed but it isnt ususally the job of the head coach to work the PP or the PK.That job has always fallen on the shoulders of the assistants.

and the assistants are usually put there by the coach. again wilson.

 

i dont like bruce boudreau,but i give him credit for his coaching. he took a high powered scoring team whichh style wasnt good enough to win the cup,and with basicly the same team turned it into a a more defencive team,since goal tending wasnt the teams strong point.and its working.

wilson on the other hand with the pp and pk and when goaltending was sub-par did nothing! "keep working on it,keep working on it" oh and maybe chage the line up 6 times a game,or during the season try 2 maybe 3 different PP quarterbacks. what a joke, how about change the box style PP, try a few different systems maybe one will gel right for this team.

dosent talk behind the bench either. just stands there confused looks to the referees.

Posted

Coaches request a bench staff GM's assign a bench staff.How do you think woody has lasted as long as he has in Toronto.

 

Dont get me wrong I am no fan of wilsons but when you have all hammers and no screwdeivers then its tough to get the job done.They have made subtle adjustments all year long,they just were not good enough.The PP went to a pressure down low attack with one high and that did not produce as well as it should have.The Pk has gone from the traditional 2-2 to a 1-2-1 to a 1-1-2 and back again....no luck at all.I know if I were a coach and saw Brent and Boyce as my top PK unit I would run for the hills.

 

Sure wilson is a poor excuse for a coach but not having much to work with does have its effect.

Posted

Agreed Chance. Why did they stay so long with Giguere and why would they even consider a resign? He wasn'ta great goalie when he won the cup with Anaheim. I always thought they won despite their goaltending. :wallbash:

 

Dan O.

Posted

If you ask me, the leafs will get better once Burke gets rid of his dead beat buddy Ron Wilson, and gets a coach that knows more about the newer style of the game, and has a better read on developing young players...

 

Burke is at fault for alot of the Leafs shortcomings too. He just plays it be the numbers and depth chart, refuses to admit he's wrong. If he noticed in the Pre-season that Riemer was better than Gustov! Then the leafs would've been a play off team, not to mention keeping Mike Zigomanis up since he's one of the better penalty killers and faceoff man in the game. But again it's a numbers game with Burke and Wilson, they rely too much on their projected depth charts not actually on who's playing good enough to be on the team.

 

Another major misread of Burke and Wilson was sending Kadri down in his first year! I don't care how bad you are defensively but when you lead the team in scoring in the pre-season you BLOODY PLAY THE KID! Lol... HOw would you have felt if the coach told you "yah you scored four goals and such but you still need more developing, we're gonna keep up Deadbeat Rick WALLIN instead of you!" Skinner on Carolina scored one goal in the preseason and he still made the time... Kadri missed out on 2 years of good proffessional development with the Big CLub Courtesy of Burke and Wilson's poor hockey insight and poor read of the game today!

 

I rest my Case,,, Do yourselves a favor and just follow a more well run franchise liek Detriot or Vancouver, and do without the stresses of analyzing a team that seems will never be fixed lol..

Posted

Speaking of sheep ,how about the people who use the same argument over and over again yet it makes absolutely no sense at all.Soooo the leafs brass do not care about winning just the money?We all know playoff revenue is next to nothing right...well isn't it?

If they DID win the cup can you imagine how that would bring in the money?

If making money was the goal would not a few rounds of playoff hockey be an incentive???

So without support the leafs are going to magically come up with better players??Yes sir boycott the Leafs and Brad Richards will say"hey now theres a place I want to play".You just might have Crosby thinking about asking for a trade.

 

As it stands now Richards has flat out said that said that he will not sign with the leafs. I doubt whether Crosby would want to play for Toronto as well. While most teams need to make the playoffs consistently in order to make money, the leafs are not in that situation. I think that sheep comment was a bit too close to home for you. The fact is that the maple leafs as an organization have less incentive to win because they can count on leaf nation turning out in droves to support the team win, lose or draw. If you want to blame anyone for the mismanagement of the leafs it is the fans.

Having said that the leafs finally look like they are on the rebound. It's just a shame that it took so long.

Posted

Geez if Burke and Wilson decide to send Kadri down for lack of defensive play, how the hell does Kessel get away with being -23 or what ever he is. Yeah he scored 32 but he was on for 55 against assuming he's not on the penalty kill. :unsure: Kadri needed seasoning but not a whole season in the minors.

 

Dan O.

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