Number one rule of fishing, dont "overthink" it.
If youre attempting to ice fish laketrout without electronics...good luck
If youre hiring a permanent hut from an operator at the end of the season? Good luck
you say you are deadsticking minnows...but what does your presentation look like, do you have all sorts of "cheater" mechanisms all over your line, like snap swivels, too big of jigs, big hooks etc? good luck.
To me at least in my experience, the devil is 100% in the details, but overthinking about fishing on this day or the next or not is a load of whatever as far as I am concerned.
In my observation, the moon has impact on two things, 1 in the spring for bass, the first full moon when the water reaches 60 degrees, youre going to see a huge wave of a spawning.
2. if its perfectly clear and calm during a full moon, ive observed that the fishing can be tougher as I personally believe the fish have fed a bit more through the night than normal.
as far as the moon having any impact on fish that are below ice that cant see the sky, or observe any water level change on a small lake thats not tide impacted...ehhhh
the presentation of your bait, the line your using, the knot, the hook is far more important.
Permanent huts are the equivalent of going and fishing in your boat on the same shoal every single day all day...Seems crazy to think that the fishing is going to be excellent all of the time for the whole year doing that no?
staying mobile, adjusting depths all matters, at the end of the day though, ice fishing is a giant unproductive PITA. As far as im concerned its something to do during the winter, but the really "banner" days are few and far between no matter how hard you grind at it.
Laketrout specifically, its hard to get around them, once you are, then its hard to get them to bite, then if you do, its hard to land them. Thats the name of the game, youre either in or your out.
The payoff can be pretty sweet, nothing in ice fishing beats catching lakers through the ice, but holy heck id much rather target them from a boat!
Ill add, im totally aware that this is a lot of complaining...but your talking to a guy that has the snowmobiles, the livescope, the huts, heaters blah blah blah and spent 12(ish) full 8 hour days out there this winter chasing lakers, caught some, skunked some, literally didnt have any "great" days all winter this year, still did it!