Weather watches

[StoneFly]

Being a weather guy I can tell you the answer is easy.

It's impossible to predict the appearance of a tornado.

 

Agreed, and myself being a weather guy also, I do know that that it is relatively easy even for the laymen to know the conditions are present for the possibility of one to occur. Even using simple tools that are accessible to everyone. Notwithstanding this, when Torndoes are reported to the northwest of a major metropolitan area at 4:30 and no warnings (or watches) issued to the south east until 6pm or later while it is occuring, it doesnt add up.

 

I wonder how many 10,000's of children were running around wonderland on thursday evening when those tornadoes ripped past it with no warnings given.

 

As defined by Environment Canada, A Tonadoe 'WATCH' means the conditions are present for one to occur, a Tornadoe 'WARNING' means it is occuring. I often wonder if the agenda is more political than anything else.

 

Slightly different topic, Anyone ever seen a 50% P.O.P ? its always 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, 100%, with the odd time, 10%, 30%, 70% or 90%,...but NEVER 50%.

[Roy]

Potatoe

[TC1OZ]

I just noticed in the second last picture nobody is looking at the house

 

 

I wonder if they were doing the typical catcalls.... "Yo baby shake that thing over this way!"

 

Or my favorite Peter Griffen "YOU SUCK" lol....but hes no good.

[solopaddler]

Potatoe

 

Hey Roy are you related to Dan Quayle?

[kickingfrog]

can tornados happen at night?

 

 

Perfectly legitimate question.

 

Forecast: More Killer Tornadoes Strike at Night

 

By LiveScience Staff

 

posted: 05 November 2008 12:51 pm ET

 

Tornado warning systems have decreased deaths in the United States resulting from these destructive storms, but the alerts might be leaving us vulnerable to twisters that strike at night, a scientist now warns.

 

In the past century, tornado deaths have declined overall, in large part due to sophisticated forecasting technology and warning systems that give people in the path of a storm time to get to safety.

 

But a new study by Northern Illinois University found that the nighttime tornado death rate in the past 100 years hasn't kept pace with the decline in the rate for daytime tornadoes.

 

"The proportion of nocturnal fatalities and killer tornado events has increased during the last half century," said lead author of the study Walker Ashley, an NIU meteorologist. "Unfortunately, this nocturnal fatality rate appears to be a major factor for the stalled decline in national tornado-fatality tallies during the past few decades."

 

I did not read this post until this morning. I could not help myself, I just had to see why it was still around.

 

Yes, tornadoes do occur at night, but I'll take issue with the way the nighttime fatalities from tornadoes was presented.

 

I don't have the stats that LiveScience Staff has, but you need to look at all the factors.

 

1. There is more than 12 hours of daylight during much of year when tornadoes are more likely to occur. So if tornadoes can occur at any time (they don't, see reason # 2) the odds are they will happen in daylight hours more often than not. This makes the sample sizes smaller for nighttime tornadoes, a small number of deadly tornadoes can therefore skew the stats.

 

2. Tornadoes don't occur as often at night in part do to the heat that is one of the major factors for the formation of funnel clouds. Decreasing the sample size again.

 

3. Any nighttime tornadoes that don't cause property damage are less likely to be reported because: few people will see funnel clouds due to darkness and fact that they are likely to be asleep. This "appears" to increases the number of deadly tornadoes by lessening the number of funnel clouds spotted but not causing property damage and death. Decreasing sample size again.

 

4. While tornado type weather can be predicted, actual tornadoes and locations are imposable to predict (as stated). Eye witnesses contribute with the spotting of funnel clouds and the informing of the public at large. Again there is less of this during the night due to more people being inside, the lack of light and sleeping.

 

5. If people are sleeping at night they are not going to hear the radio and/or TV warnings about possible tornadoes in their area. If they don't hear the warnings they will not take appropriate cover, and many of our bedrooms are on the second floors.

Edited August 23, 2009 by kickingfrog

[StoneFly]

Potatoe

 

Nice contribution !!

[ohhenrygsr]

Glad everyone is ok Now

LET'S MAKE IT RIGHT

 

[danbouck]

Glad everyone is ok Now

LET'S MAKE IT RIGHT

 

 

bahahaha

[Badger Shark]

After the events of the day, I sent Environment Canada a couple of messages (one of them appended below). I think they meant Restoule Lake, but a lot of people wouldn't know where that is either.

 

My second message dealt with the fact that although they have a lot of marginally interesting items on their site, they have nothing about what the precautions should be for a tornado. When they say in their warning "take necessary precautions", they don't tell you what those are.

 

I think that in tornado conditions you are supposed to get as far below ground as you can, or at least be indoors in the center of your house and lie down on the floor if you have no basement (we were ready to get into our crawl space). If I have it right you should also open as many windows as you can (air pressure equalization). Other than that we've never checked.

 

Opening windows does nothing to help in an event of a tornado, it was thought long ago doing this would yes equalize the preassure and in fact while I attended shcool in Kansas back in the 80s we had tornado drills twice a month and part of it was opening the windows. With more studies this practice was proven useless.\

 

As for warnings, unfortunately we are not set up for mass warnings like in the states. Down there they have warning sirens all over the place which will get your attention wheather you have a radio or tv or not. No powere = not tv = no warning unless you happen to be listeing to the radio in a vehicle, but the sirens are very loud and you do hear them. Very helpful at night. I guess since tornadoes are much more rare here it is not worth the expense to set up a similar system.

 

I will say the sound of tornado sirens going off is one of the scariest sounds I have ever heard, especially at night.

You never know after these last 6 confirmed touchdowns maybe they will look into an outdoor warning system, but I doubt it.

[Jonny]

Opening windows does nothing to help in an event of a tornado, it was thought long ago doing this would yes equalize the preassure and in fact while I attended shcool in Kansas back in the 80s we had tornado drills twice a month and part of it was opening the windows. With more studies this practice was proven useless.\

 

OK, good to know, thanks. I knew it wouldn't be a lick of help with a "direct hit" - nothing is. I thought it might help with a near miss.

[ohhenrygsr]

You should ask Myth busters to prove that theory

[bigugli]

Drove through Durham town. yesterday. Folks were still busy at it clearing the debris along hwy#6. The worst hit part of town was still cordoned off and guarded by police.

 

As for the sirens. There is a lot more involved than simply putting up a few towers and sirens. The old air raid warning system was derelict for decades before they were torn down. 2/3 no longer worked because they were never tested annually ( didn't want to scare folks ) and there was no regular maintenance.

Then you need another layer of emergency infrastructure to track storms and issue the necessary localized warning and set off the alarms.

Now, do you set up this advanced warning system for certain parts of the province or province wide. We do have a well known 'tornado alley', but many storms have occurred beyond those parameters. Thorold and Minden come to mind.

[StoneFly]

Drove through Durham town. yesterday. Folks were still busy at it clearing the debris along hwy#6. The worst hit part of town was still cordoned off and guarded by police.

 

As for the sirens. There is a lot more involved than simply putting up a few towers and sirens. The old air raid warning system was derelict for decades before they were torn down. 2/3 no longer worked because they were never tested annually ( didn't want to scare folks ) and there was no regular maintenance.

Then you need another layer of emergency infrastructure to track storms and issue the necessary localized warning and set off the alarms.

Now, do you set up this advanced warning system for certain parts of the province or province wide. We do have a well known 'tornado alley', but many storms have occurred beyond those parameters. Thorold and Minden come to mind.

 

Im thinkin that sirens are kindof outdated. With all of the technology we have, I mean pretty much everyone has a TV, radio, internet and cell phone these days. I would think there may be an opportunity for some telecommunications wizard to set up some type of application for this, which could also have several other applications. I guess my original point about the 'Warning's' was that even on the weather network that they were not issued in nearly enough time, when they could have been. I was texting and phoning friends and families about severe weather coming last thursday, hours before Environment Canada issued anything for the area.

 

Im also thinking a place like wonderland that has a PA system throughout the entire park could have done something, that tornado was damn close to ripping through there. Just imagine if it had of.

 

As I recall, For years since the 1985 twisters, almost everytime there was a nasty system moving in, environment Canada issued a tornadoe warning, but they rarely developed and never near populated areas if they did. Im wondering if recently it has been more of a case of not 'crying wolf'.

[Jonny]

An "inquiry specialist" from environment Canada responded to my emails.

 

Here are the links he gave me:

 

http://www.pnr-rpn.ec.gc.ca/air/summersevere/index.en.html

 

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/severe/summer_e.html

 

I wrote back and suggested that these links be posted directly with tornado watches and warnings, rather than be so obscure. Note that one of them is an Atlantic Canada link.