Climate change blamed for Great Lakes decline

[Spiel]

Climate change blamed for Great Lakes decline

 

 

December 15th, 2009

Martin Mittelstaedt / Globe and Mail

 

 

Canadian-U.S. study attributes discernible drop in water levels in Huron and Michigan to drier weather

 

The water levels of Lake Huron and Lake Michigan have been falling steadily compared with those on Lake Erie, and no one knew why.

 

But a major report financed by the U.S. and Canadian governments suggests an answer: The fingerprints of climate change are starting to be found in the Great Lakes, the world’s largest body of fresh water, causing a discernible drop in their levels.

 

The report, released Tuesday, estimated that Lake Huron and Lake Michigan have fallen about a quarter metre relative to Lake Erie since the early 1960s, with 40 to 74 per cent of the reduction due to recent changes in precipitation patterns and temperatures.

 

The alteration in climate is “the most significant factor” in the water level drop and “could be a more substantive issue for the future on the Great Lakes,” said Ted Yuzyk, Canadian co-chair of the International Upper Great Lakes Study Board, which compiled the report.

 

Previous studies have projected a decline in the amount of water in the Great Lakes due to climate change, but the board is the first to suggest the trend is already happening.

 

The fall in water levels is attributed to such factors as less precipitation and the persistent, long-term decline in the lakes’ ice cover each winter.

 

The report said generally drier weather and drought-like conditions from 1998 to 2008 in the central part of North America led to a drop of about 20 per cent in the quantity of water flowing into Lake Huron and Lake Michigan, compared with the average since 1948.

 

The two lakes depend on precipitation and run-off for about three-quarters of their inflow. The other quarter comes from Lake Superior, whose outflow can be partly regulated. Lake Erie, by contrast, receives nearly 80 per cent of its supplies from Lake Huron, so it hasn’t been influenced as dramatically by the reduction in precipitation.

 

The finding that climate change is already undermining the Great Lakes is politically sensitive. The board has written to the Canadian and U.S. governments to see whether it is within its mandate to study ways to hold back some of the water in Lakes Huron and Michigan to maintain their size in the face of global warming. Mr. Yuzyk said the clarification is still being assessed.

 

The board was assembled by the International Joint Commission, a bi-national U.S. and Canadian organization that monitors boundary waters the two countries share.

 

The concerns about Lake Huron and Lake Michigan levels arose in 2005, when a Canadian environmental organization, Georgian Bay Forever, said levels were diminishing because dredging of the St. Clair River in the 1960s allowed more water to drain from the lakes. The river, which runs by the Ontario community of Sarnia, drains the two lakes and ultimately flows into Lake Erie, leading to worries that the Great Lakes had sprung a leak.

 

But the report said that while the riverbed experienced some erosion in the 1980s, it now appears to be stable. In addition, it said a small part of the observed water level changes were due to the way land around the Great Lakes is rebounding from the melting of glaciers that covered the area during the last ice age.

 

While most of the world’s attention on disappearing ice has focused on the Arctic, the trend is also happening on the Great Lakes. The report said that in the past 36 winters, three of the four smallest ice covers on Lakes Huron, Michigan, Erie and Superior occurred from 1998 to 2008.

 

Less ice leads to increased heat input from sunlight, higher winds around the water and more evaporation, contributing to lower water levels.

 

The report involved more than 100 scientists and engineers and a budget estimated at $4-million.

[Twocoda]

i could have saved them the 4 million they spent on the study and told them the 2 million they spent on the St Clair River dredging Project in 03 was the primary cause of our northern great lakes declining ( hence the reason Erie isnt changing )

 

all that cost was my .02

 

 

http://www.greatlakesdirectory.org/on/072503_great_lakes.htm

[Guest ThisPlaceSucks]

so dredging the SCR somehow altered the entire planet's climate?

 

OFC sure has no shortage of armchair scientists!

[Twocoda]

i dont see how you have to be a scientist to figure out if you put a larger hole in a bucket its going to empty quicker

 

Armchair critique

[Guest ThisPlaceSucks]

well, considering that all the officials studying the phenomenon say that the St. Clair River has no factual information behind it, i'm just wondering where you get your data.

[Guest ThisPlaceSucks]

spiel even posted something a few threads below about it:

 

http://www.ofncommunity.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=38633

[Twocoda]

well, considering that all the officials studying the phenomenon say that the St. Clair River has no factual information behind it, i'm just wondering where you get your data.

 

My Data comes from Grade 4 science class

 

If you make the drain larger on the tub (bad decision)..water is going to leave it quicker ....the excuses from the so called "paid for by Government" scientists are merely scrambling to divert the blame for a convenient screw up to get shipping freighters into Huron. This is a lengthy debate as to what really is going on with respected opinions from both sides of the issue...i sit on the side of human error more then i sit on the side of the small climate change making drastic changes to the levels causing "lake front" properties to become "lake view" properties in a very short amount of time ....coincidentally since the dredge that torrented out of control washing bait fish out into Lake St Clair and Erie...hence a small contributing factor to the starvation of the top predators in Huron that are now thriving in the lower Great Lakes.

 

Climate change in MY opinion is going to make the Lakes BIGGER/DEEPER until there is no more ice to melt..then it will decline

 

As i stated in the first post "all that cost was my .02"

 

If you fall and break your arm..do you really need a Doctor to tell you its broken?

[canadadude]

My Data comes from Grade 4 science class

 

If you make the drain larger on the tub (bad decision)..water is going to leave it quicker ....the excuses from the so called "paid for by Government" scientists are merely scrambling to divert the blame for a convenient screw up to get shipping freighters into Huron. This is a lengthy debate as to what really is going on with respected opinions from both sides of the issue...i sit on the side of human error more then i sit on the side of the small climate change making drastic changes to the levels causing "lake front" properties to become "lake view" properties in a very short amount of time ....coincidentally since the dredge that torrented out of control washing bait fish out into Lake St Clair and Erie...hence a small contributing factor to the starvation of the top predators in Huron that are now thriving in the lower Great Lakes.

 

Climate change in MY opinion is going to make the Lakes BIGGER/DEEPER until there is no more ice to melt..then it will decline

 

As i stated in the first post "all that cost was my .02"

 

If you fall and break your arm..do you really need a Doctor to tell you its broken?

Did Grade 4 science class teach you that once a lake is full of water it won't take anymore, Lake Erie has not grown in size because they dredged the St Clair river. For your theory to work they would need to increase flow in the Niagara aswell as the St Lawerence Rivers. The flow of the entire lower watershead would have had to increase which is not the case, water levels have decreased throughout the system or at best are holding there own. The climate change therory is the best answer to the level decrease, Lower precitation, more evaporation = lower lake levels. I agree a larger drain will make the water leave quicker on the tub but when the tub your draining into is full, the water will leave at the rate the other tub is draining.Thats what grade 5 science teaches you.

[12footspringbok]

First "Global Warming" now Climate Change" glad to see MSM has done a such a good job on people...

 

Heres some infor on a page a read a few months ago while i was doing some of my own research on georgian bay glad i book marked it.

 

GBF research (the Baird Report 2004) has shown that the St. Clair River has significantly increased its conveyance capacity and so is the main cause of the unprecedented nine years of sustained low water levels

 

to date the International Upper Great Lakes Study, a $17 Million undertaking of the International Joint Commission (IJC), refuses to conduct the 3-Dimensional Modeling of the St. Clair River necessary to do a complete analysis of the St. Clair River conveyance

meanwhile at least 6 Billion gallons daily more than the previous regular flow is permanently leaving Lakes Michigan/Huron/Georgian Bay

 

http://georgianbayforever.org/about-the-georgian-bay

[canadadude]

Unfortunatly this report is inacurate and very outdated, I tend to believe the more recent report of climate change being the leading factor in the low water levels, it makes more sense.

[Twocoda]

Unfortunatly this report is inacurate and very outdated, I tend to believe the more recent report of climate change being the leading factor in the low water levels, it makes more sense.

 

 

First year psychology you'll learn about denial...that is of course if you believe any of that

[Guest ThisPlaceSucks]

First year psychology you'll learn about denial...that is of course if you believe any of that

 

so you're a scientist and a psychologist?

 

 

i tend to trust a large panel of scientists and "concensus" over a consulting/engineering firm HIRED by a special interest group.

 

it's like when scientists funded by the petroleum industry "refute" global warming science provided by the IPCC...laughable at best, and frightening at worst!

[Twocoda]

so you're a scientist and a psychologist?

 

neither

 

 

 

as i said ...this is a lengthy debate with valid contributing factors from both sides... regardless...if your driving from point "A" to point "B" and get "off track" do you look at a map to get back "on track"

Wheres the map for getting the Upper Lakes back "on track?" Is it imposing a carbon tax to the world to any country that emits more than 6 % per year so the climate change can peak in 40 years ??? or is it to build a controlled flow waterway between the lakes? The later sounds much more appealing to me to get back "on track" and wont take forty years to begin the correction.... assuming the reduction to 6% in emissions could ever be possible

 

again ....just MY .02

Edited December 27, 2009 by Twocoda

[12footspringbok]

neither

 

 

 

as i said ...this is a lengthy debate with valid contributing factors from both sides... regardless...if your driving from point "A" to point "B" and get "off track" do you look at a map to get back "on track"

Wheres the map for getting the Upper Lakes back "on track?" Is it imposing a carbon tax to the world to any country that emits more than 6 % per year so the climate change can peak in 40 years ??? or is it to build a controlled flow waterway between the lakes? The later sounds much more appealing to me to get back "on track" and wont take forty years to begin the correction.... assuming the reduction to 6% in emissions could ever be possible

 

again ....just MY .02

 

Thank you sir!