SPECIAL REPORT: Georgian Bay bouncing back

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SPECIAL REPORT: Georgian Bay bouncing back

 

 

Aug 19, 2009

Nicole Million / midlandmirror.com

 

 

Georgian Bay property owners have had to reconsider where to dock their toys in recent summers,

as low water levels have left a much larger shoreline and space between their docks and the water. / Nicole Million photo

 

 

Bucking a recent trend, water levels in Georgian Bay are beginning to rebound.

But the long-term prediction is the Great Lakes will continue to drop due to the effects of climate change.

 

That is the message Ted Yurzyk, co-director of the International Upper Great Lakes Study (IUGLS) board, delivered during a public meeting this spring that presented the results of a two-year study on lake levels – particularly how they are affected by changes in the flow of the St. Clair River.

 

The primary objective of the study, Yurzyk told The Mirror, is to review the existing regulation plan to see if it meets current and evolving needs.

 

The secondary objective, he said, was to determine whether the St. Clair River conveyance capacity, or how much water can pass through the channel, has been altered since the last major dredging activity in the early 1960s. If the capacity had been reduced, the study could have suggested remediation actions.

 

The low water levels seen over the last decade have resulted in significant impacts for waterfront property owners, but also businesses that rely on the water to survive. Marinas have been forced to dredge to get boats in or out of the water; boating, especially for large vessels, has been restricted; and docks and water intakes have had to be extended.

Yurzyk said the water levels from 1997 to 2007 were unusually low.

 

“That is a long period of near-drought conditions,” he said. “It was really critical because it was affecting people, businesses, etc.

 

“This was the first time in their memory of seeing such conditions. There was a lot of concern that this was the beginning of climate change.”

 

This led to some emotionally charged meetings, including one held June 11 in Midland.

“We’ve had to deal with that aspect and (let people know) we’ve seen these kinds of periods before,” said Yurzyk. “The ’30s was very similar.”

 

The study points to climate change as the most significant cause of low water levels, Yurzyk said, although increased conveyance of the St. Clair River and changes in the Earth’s surface due to ongoing post-glacial adjustments are also contributing factors.

 

The tide is turning, however, with water levels inching up slowly in the past two years. “Fortunately, water levels on Lake Michigan (and Lake) Huron started to rebound in 2008 and continued in 2009,” he said, adding they are currently up 30 centimetres from a year ago, although still approximately 15 centimetres below the long-term average for this time of year.

Helping with that, he said, is the number of rainstorms that have made their way over the area, as well as recent cold winters.

 

“We have had those really nice cold winters that have been really important. Once that ice freezes over, you don’t have a lot of evaporation from the lakes. What happened before is we had a lot of open water and the dry winter weather just sucks up the moisture from the lake,” he said. “Getting back to more normal-type weather conditions that we’d seen before is really helping, and the lakes have rebounded quite well.”

 

Although Yurzyk said researchers do expect to see a small increase in water levels in the short term, in the long-term, they anticipate climate change will result in further lowering of the Great Lakes. With just over two years of work put into the five-year study, Yurzyk acknowledged there is still a lot to do.

 

“We (still) have to look at what the water levels are, what’s the range in water levels, what impacts (this has) on social economic areas, what coastal areas are like, what’s eroding and what the implications are,” he said, adding they have students out gathering information on boating in order to help determine possible economic and environmental implications.

 

The public has also played a role in the study thus far, he said, adding information and concerns gathered at meetings held over the last two years has been seriously considered and taken into account.

 

“They were instrumental in getting the study started. They have got us to speed up the first part of the study by almost one full year,” he said, adding the public has provided continuous feedback on all aspects of the study.

 

Yurzyk said the next phase will focus on regulation aspects, including running models and determining the possible implications of various plans.

 

“Over the next couple of years, a big analyses (will) come forward with what we think is a more robust plan,” he said, adding some of the major recommendations will likely include a revised regulation plan that is more vigorous in terms of responding to climate change.

 

Once the study is complete, the IUGLS will provide several options to the International Joint Commission (IJC), the Canada-U.S. body tasked with monitoring and protecting bodies of water shared by the two countries.

 

Formal hearings will be held afterward to gauge reaction to the option considered most likely to produce a positive effect.

 

A St. Clair River report is expected to be submitted to the IJC in October, with the final study report likely to be completed early in 2012.

 

 

Some cottage owners still high and dry

 

One doesn’t have to look too closely at the shores of Georgian Bay to notice the toll low water levels have taken over the past 10 years.

 

Docks and breakwalls built years ago are now several metres from the water.

David Cornish, who owns a cottage in Waubaushene, has attended meetings about water levels for the past three years. He said he is disappointed by the results of the International Upper Great Lakes Study.

 

“After a five-year study by so-called experts, they’ve come down with a verdict that (lower water levels) was a natural phenomenon and that it would right itself in time,” he said. “It was an awful pile of money – something like $15 million – that was spent on this study between Canada and the U.S., and I thought it was just common sense. They didn’t need to take all that money and years to figure it out.”

 

Cornish’s family has owned a property on the shores of Sturgeon Bay since the 1930s. He said while the water levels do fluctuate a certain amount, the last three summers has been the lowest he has ever seen them.

 

“It has been about as low as I can remember,” he said. “It is coming back up again. Just what the reason is, I don’t know. It didn’t come up last year and it was a wet year. It’s baffled me a bit that this would be happening.”

 

Despite higher water levels this summer, Cornish is concerned by predictions that Georgian Bay will remain low, which will create problems for waterfront property owners, boaters and businesses that depend on the water for their survival.

 

“(Low water) gives about 80 feet of Crown land between me and the water. When you try to keep your shoreline clean – that adds another 80 feet of maintenance,” Cornish said, adding that extra property has created problems for many of his neighbours with motorboats. “Their docks are useless to them. They have to anchor their boats way out in the bay someplace.”

 

Many of his neighbours also pump water out of the bay to supply their homes and cottages, so they’ve had to add 15 to 30 metres to their water line due to the low water levels, he noted.

They are also forced to make their way through several feet of foam and “gunk” in order to go swimming.

 

“It’s been quite disappointing. I can remember back when I was in public school … we used to cook with that water and boil it to drink right out of the bay. We haven’t been able to do that in 30 years or more.”

 

Cornish said he has also noticed a decrease in the number of boaters out on the water in recent years.

 

“There just don’t seem to be that many boats, and there haven’t been as many fishing boats in Sturgeon Bay like there has been in previous years. The water’s been too warm and too low.”

 

 

Anglers hope higher water levels remain

 

Lower water levels over the past decade have caused fishermen more grief than a leaky boat.

While the Great Lakes are currently up, experts indicate all long-term models point to lower levels.

 

Brian Berriault, an associate member of the Eastern Georgian Bay Stewardship Council and owner of Backwater Tackle in Midland, is puzzled by the increase in water levels this year after nearly a decade of record lows.

 

“In some places this year, I have noticed the water up at least a foot-and-a-half, if not two feet. It’s been low seven or eight years,” he said, adding he was concerned the problem was only going to continue to get worse.

 

“We had a couple of years in a bad state. (People) were talking about global warming, wondering if we were going to experience hotter-than-normal summers…. Hot summers and evaporating waters means low water levels.”

 

Despite the increase, Berriault is concerned by predictions that Georgian Bay will remain low, noting that would cause a decline in the number of boaters and fishermen heading out on the lake.

 

“People are a little shy about going out on Georgian Bay (if the water is low), especially with all the rocks,” he said, noting many public launches – such as in Victoria Harbour – have been high and dry. “You couldn’t use them because you couldn’t back your boat in far enough to float it out.”

 

This caused many people to take their boats elsewhere, he said. “Guys were taking (boats) and fishing Lake Simcoe or other areas where the boat launches are a little more accessible,” he said. Low water levels also affect fish habitat, Berriault said. “Fish are looking for alternate places to spawn. That has a really detrimental effect,” he said. “You would get used to fishing in a certain area, but there weren’t fish there.” He noted a perfect example of that is Matchedash Bay near Waubaushene, which has seen its status as a “great haven for largemouth bass” decline over the years.

 

Berriault said while many were forced to adapt to the low water levels, there was concern that some places were just going to “dry right up.” However, he said, this summer has brought him hope that the bad years were just a blip on the radar.

 

“This year, the proof’s in the pudding that nature takes its course. Obviously the water levels are starting to come back,” he said. “My hope and dream is it continues to rise.”