MJIG

There are two assertions in there: “social distancing is useless” and “Masks are utterly useless. There is no evidence base for their effectiveness whatsoever” Together, they don’t seem to reconcile with the change in influenza cases in Canada this fall/winter over other years: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/flu-influenza/influenza-surveillance/weekly-influenza-reports.html I wonder which of those assertions is wrong? Or would there be some other reason for the case drop? Is it all attributable to hand-washing? Coughing into sleeves instead of hands? Border closures? No more handshaking? The rest is mostly just a repetition of the “economic health” vs “vulnerable population health” argument. There is no mention of the significant socioeconomic impacts of a health-care system that gets completely overwhelmed with patients, or has insufficient health-care staff to keep up with the demand that arises from everything, including COVID-19. Many of Canada’s provincial health care systems are on the verge apparently, and it is my understanding that “flattening the curve” by “stopping the spread” in order to protect the health care system is the current driver behind the public health measures.

I almost get woozy looking at the picture with the ground far, far below. That’s impressive.

There’s a disclaimer typically accompanying financial and stock recommendations: “Information on past performance, where given, is not necessarily a guide to future performance.” The same could be said for a person’s immune system, particularly with a novel virus that it hasn’t had to deal with in the past. Time marches on for all of us. Many of the 176 patients in Ontario on a ventilator last night for COVID-19, probably would not have been had COVID-19 struck 10, 20, or 30 years ago when they were younger. Unfortunately, it is striking in 2020. For those that do opt-into taking one of the vaccines that become available, and for the many Canadians that already, and unfortunately, caught COVID-19 and survived it, hopefully (we don’t know for certain) your system may be better-prepared to deal with it if it surfaces again in the future... It will be those that managed to avoid catching the disease in the 2020 round, and remained unvaccinated, that will still have first-exposure risk just as we all do right now... ... and we will all be older.

There are always two sides to weigh before a yes or no decision gets made on anything. It’s a common practice (particularly on the internet) to try and place derogatory labels on those with an opposing view (conspiracy theorist, sheep, unenlightened). That is done to try and discredit one side in the hope that others might not listen to them. This decision is too important to fall for any of that. Make your decision based on your own review of the arguments, information as it evolves over the next few months, and your own gut and instincts. Unless you are over 80 or a health care worker, you still have time to hear more information and see more results before rolling up your own sleeve. As I have opined previously, I thing the choice we have is really about taking concrete steps to put an end to this devastating pandemic, or continuing to let it fester and be stuck with the stringent public health measures for the foreseeable future. I’m willing to take some risk for ending this. I know there are no guarantees, but waiting years for more certainty seems unpalatable too.

It is a bit similar, but maybe not identical, to old flutterbugs? http://www.lurelovers.com/forum/bills-bug-flutterbug-different-sizes_topic213.html Did old jitterbugs ever look like that?

That puts two products into the vaccine arsenal now, as well as two supply chain pipelines. The Moderna one doesn’t require the drastic extreme cold storage that the Pfizer one does, so it may be easier to get to more places. Health Canada link: https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/news/2020/12/health-canada-authorizes-moderna-covid-19-vaccine.html media link: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/health-canada-approves-game-changer-moderna-covid-19-vaccine-1.5242821

The regulatory approval is new. “mRNA vaccines have been tested in humans before, for at least four infectious diseases: rabies, influenza, cytomegalovirus, and Zika.” source and mRNA described: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/89998 As for non-mRNA, “Currently, there are five vaccines in development for Covid-19 with intranasal routes of administration with spike protein in the formulation.” They have not had clinical trials in humans yet, or hadn’t at the time of the article below. source: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200821155747.htm They offered the following hopeful observations in the animal trials: “In contrast, the nasal delivery route prevented infection in both the upper and lower respiratory tract -- the nose and lungs -- suggesting that vaccinated individuals would not spread the virus or develop infections elsewhere in the body.”

Death rate among COVID-19 patients nearly three times higher than influenza, study suggests: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/death-rate-among-covid-19-patients-nearly-three-times-higher-than-influenza-study-suggests-1.5236346 Someone that I know had their mother pass away from COVID-19 four weeks back. Personally, I’m fortunate that nobody I’ve ever known has died from influenza. Comparison of COVID-19 and Influenza: https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/no-covid-19-is-not-the-flu.html

This is the graph of hospitalizations in Canada for COVID-19 throughout the year. source: https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html Total influenza cases confirmed (hospitalized or not) this entire season: “To date this season, 47 influenza detections have been reported (Figure 2), which is significantly lower than the past six seasons where an average of 4,354 influenza detections were reported between weeks 35-50.” source: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/fluwatch/2020-2021/week-50-december-6-december-12-2020.html#a2

Yes: Dec 19 Canadian cases count Dec 19: 495,346 Dec 19 Canadian Death count: 14,040 (14040 x 100) / 495346 = 2.834% of cases are dying in Canada

Large formal clinical trials have a control group that gets a placebo and neither the participant or the person administering the doses knows which a participant is given. Then the participants go about their lives, other than the monitoring that’s required. Over 41,000 people got the two doses of the Pfizer vaccine. Pfizer stated “There were 10 severe cases of COVID-19 observed in the trial, with nine of the cases occurring in the placebo group and one in the BNT162b2 vaccinated group.” “170 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were evaluated, with 162 observed in the placebo group versus 8 in the vaccine group.” Source: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine So there are no guarantees, but the odds are in the vaccines favour for efficacy. I think most of the hesitancy centres more around safety concerns and long term effects, not effectiveness.

A full year without seeing any of my siblings in person. Who would have thought that could ever happen? I’m curious what other people have at the top of their list for why kicking 2020 to the curb is a good thing.

That what I say about brussel sprouts, cabbage rolls and any peppers. For some reason, I’ve never been able to get my head around brussel sprouts either, despite trying for years and years. I love cabbage rolls and peppers though. I think brussel sprouts must actually taste different for me than for the people who love them. Maybe it’s a genetic taste-bud thing or something, I don’t know.

If none of the vaccines work out as hoped, aren’t we stuck with the significant public health measures for the foreseeable future, with double-digit senior deaths daily? An effective vaccine or an effective treatment that favours survival even if you catch covid-19 seem to be the only hope out of this predicament we’re all in. I think that scary thought is maybe what prompts some people in the world to deny that the virus even exists, or say “damn the torpedos” and place others at great risk by setting aside public health guidelines. I agree that the changing tune since March hasn’t helped any.

If the influenza virus (although not a coronavirus like the cold virus and the covid-19 virus) is an indicator, yes. source: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/flu-influenza/influenza-surveillance/weekly-influenza-reports.html

A vaccine triggers a person’s immune system to recognize a virus and become able to attack it without the person having to experience the illness that is typically caused by the virus. That’s what the Pfizer vaccine approved by Health Canada and the Moderna vaccine under regulator review by Health Canada propose to do. This thread was originally about whether people would take the regulator approved vaccines, and along the way it got hijacked to include discussion about an alternative drug that does not have regulator approval for use against COVID-19. I hope this thread can get back to its roots, because that’s exactly what each of us will be grappling with over the next 12 months (I hope the vaccination program doesn’t require longer than that to offer vaccines to everyone that wants one). Why not start another thread for discussion about alternative treatments so this one can remain focused?

That’s also true for peanut butter too, in many cases. Sufficient clinical trials haven’t been completed for the younger age group. It was necessary to run the initial trial and observe the results in people of consenting age first just in case there were problems. A long term is the only thing that can lead to that knowledge, unfortunately. Many people will opt for taking the vaccine despite this, in the hopes of getting past many restrictions like not being able to visit precious family members that live in other households, or towns, or provinces, or countries. They will opt for it based on their personal risk versus reward assessment. Everyone is free to make their own assessment and act accordingly. For me personally, I don’t see it as a choice between taking a vaccine, or not taking a vaccine. Rather, I see it as a choice between: 1) taking a new vaccine or 2) risking infection from a potentially deadly virus each time I shop or do other essential things, and not being able to do many non-essential things I would really like to do again such as socializing with relatives and friends in person, or eating out at a restaurant with delicious food, or traveling.

“The general consensus among health experts and government agencies is that the elderly and those with underlying health conditions, who are at a greater risk of severe illness and death from COVID-19, should get immunized first.“ Source: https://globalnews.ca/news/7468036/canada-coronavirus-vaccine-rollout/amp/ If the public health officials follow through on vaccinating the most vulnerable first, followed by the health-care workers etc, and if the vaccines work as hoped (that is, prime the recipient’s own immune system to be able to recognize the SARS-CoV-2 virus and thus ward off illness and severe illness if later exposed to the actual virus) a visit to a vaccinated grandparent should be safe, eventually. We certainly hope that is eventually the case, because until then we all need to continue to rigorously follow the public health measures that are meant to reduce transmission (physical distancing from everyone outside your household/bubble, hand washing after touching surfaces, masking to limit droplet spread, minimizing exposure/transmission as much as possible by staying home if feeling unwell, and limiting in-person shopping to essential items.) If/when there is an effective vaccine, your tactics can change to protecting yourself by getting your vaccination. It won’t matter if someone you know chooses not to get vaccinated as they can’t harm you after you are vaccinated, nor can they harm a vaccinated senior by their own personal choice to reject an available vaccine.

The wind warning issued for the Kawartha Lakes and other places says that 110 km/hr gusts are possible this evening and overnight as the front goes through. 110 km/hr is pretty significant and potentially damaging. Environment Canada: Wind warning for Peterborough and the Kawartha Lakes

Brook silverside

As far as the pandemic goes, it’s not looking too great out there right now. England announced today that they are going back into lockdown, with non-essential workers asked to stay home until December. https://www.reuters.com/article/BigStory12/idUSKBN27G0C7

No, and the optics around changing that now, with case-counts higher, would be very poor.

Media reporting that police are giving tickets, even though the government isn’t expiring things at this time: https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/police-give-drivers-tickets-for-expired-licence-plates-despite-it-not-being-allowed-1.5115694

Is there anybody on the board who has received renewal paperwork since April?

Everyone I know is in the same state. I think it’s because they aren’t expiring due to COVID-19. Source: https://www.ontario.ca/page/extended-validation-periods